Iron Man Finals, Game 2
This is a turn by turn summary of Game 2 (best of 3) BPA Iron Man EOTS tournament. Jay won game 1 as the Allies.
Turn 2
My opening hand was average: One offensive (Tokyo Express, 2 bonus ASP), ISR, 4 3OCs and 2 2OCs (including the ISR draw). So lots of activations but not many battles.
Only the Mandates surrender. Japan captures Batavia, Tjilatjap, Soerabaja, Balikpapan and Tarakan in the DEI. Hollandia, Sarong, Lae, Port Moresby, Guadalcanal also fall. Japan pushes into Australia taking Cairns.
The US sends the X Corps from Pearl Harbor to Gili-Gili, but I wasn't able to capitalize on an undefended Pearl. I decided to stick to my plan and not divert the resources necessary to make a Hawaii push.
The Wake brigade also makes an annoying incursion by taking Ulithi.
Leyte is left without ZOI at the end of the turn. Overall, not a great turn for me because I allowed the US to take Ulithi and left Leyte open. These outposts would be easy to deal with but required activations I'd rather use elsewhere.
My plan at this point was to threaten Australia and force the US to relocate SWPAC to western Australia to keep it separated from CPAC (the main reason Cairns was invaded).
Turn 3
The US places SPAC, MAW and SF Brigade in Leyte. The RN goes to India and the USN goes to Pearl.
The turn opens with a successful Japanese assault on Manila.
Next came a critical point in the game. The US launches OP Ash against the 22nd AF in Hollandia. Not only is the 22nd AF the best Japanese air unit in the game, the US committed all SR air units in the Australia theater--Aus AF, SEAC and 5AF. This was a high reward/high risk attack by the US. Unfortunately, I didn't have an intercept card. I did have a counter-attack card but using it would mean the US would get 3 card plays at the end of the turn (Japan didn't store an FO on turn 2).
I decide to launch the counter attack. The Allies lose all 6 SR air steps and Japan loses nothing.
I only draw one offensive the entire turn (Operation RE: Attack on Milne Bay) and this drawn with a sub-attack draw with my last card. As such, I wasn't able to accomplish much--no in roads in-Burma, no clean-up at Wake or Ulithi.
Japan finishes the conquest of the DEI. I use Imperial Intervention to pick up the ISR card to try to minimize the card count damage Japan could do at the end of the turn. The US uses Roosevelt-Nimitz-MacArthur to get out of ISR and pick up Ash.
The end of turn US offensive nets a toehold in the Solomons (New Georgia) and the destruction of the 4AD and a CVL step. Not keeping the Solomons completely under ZOI was a tactical error.
The DEI and Philippines surrender and the US outpost at Leyte is eliminated.
Turn 4
SPAC relocates to Wewak. SWPAC goes to Wyndham.
After drawing only 2 offensives the first two turns, I was due for some firepower and I got it over the rest of the game. Turn 4 opens with Japan retaking Ulithi. Another Japanese ISR card is countered by General Douglas MacArthur to retrieve Op Ash again. I'm consoled by the fact that both of the US ISR ending cards that allow a discard exchange are out of the deck and both only netted Ash--I got off easy this game. Japan plays ANOTHER ISR card and is countered AGAIN, this time by Quadrant Conference.
Enough Allied squabbling and reconciliation. I play OP MI as EC to move 7 army units (5 from the DEI). Three go to the CBI, two to New Guinea, one to garrison S HQ and one to Manila. The US plays Bataan Death March to push PW to 7 and I respond with OP U-Go to take Singapore.
The US raids in the Solomons and I'm left with another tough choice. I have Tojo in hand. I have yet to draw any intercept or weather cards and my deck is still pretty rich with offensives. For the US Op Olympic is in the discard while Watchtower, Galvanic and Forager are unaccounted for. I decide that even if I don't win a PW victory, preventing a reshuffle (for both sides) is in my best interest. So Tojo Resigns and PW drops to 5.
The US launches Operation Forager II to raid Tokyo and put all Japanese units OOS. This allows Kavieng and Balikpapan to be invaded without reaction. This was a tactical error by Japan--allowing the US to get a base in range of Tokyo this early in the game is never good. However, the US position in Kavieng is perilous--there isn't a chain of bases with a secure LOC for the new forward base.
Thus, another critical juncture in the game was reached. I had been holding Rear Admiral Matami Ugaki to make a long range raid on Allied assets in the CBI theater. Instead, 4 carrier groups headed to the South Pacific to temporarily isolate the USN on New Ireland. The offensive predicated getting two 50% or better results against air units in New Georgia and Gili-Gili. Both battles go Japan's way but they Soryu and Akagi are flipped. The USN is trapped OOS in New Ireland.
Op Ash is launched for the third time, this time resulting in the NZ division landing in Kendari. Japan counters with Central Force to retake Balikpapan and Kuatan completing the conquest of Malaya. The RN shifts from the CBI to Kendari during combat/PBM.
The US saves a card to the FOQ. On my last play I could save a card as well but doing so would allow the US to put Kavieng back in supply. So Carrier Conversion is played as OC to tighten the net around Kavieng (Cape York falls).
PW drops to 3 after Malaya surrenders and the US fails to make Progress of War.
Turn 5
After a raid on Makassar, Japan launches VADM Kondo to take Wewak (knocking out SPAC) and raid the RN in Kendari. The raid eliminates the CV Indomitable and BB Warspite.
ANZAC launches Op Forager to retake Cape York and Cairns, liberating eastern Australia. Japan eliminates SEAC AF and 11AF (there are 6 eliminated air units at this point).
Another big Japanese offensive is launched, 2nd Operational Phase, this time against the CBI. The Burma border is breached, the Flying Tigers and FE AF eliminated but (CVL Zuhio) is sunk on a critical hit.
The Allies reinforce Rangoon and bring in the 14th AF with Chenault while also sending a MAW unit to New Georgia. This opens up supply to Kavieng and Japan responds with a 3OC to invade and take New Georgia, thus maintaining the "pow" camp at Kavieng.
After Booz boosts the US ASP level, Japan raids the CBI with Operation C. Japan is badly out rolled so the raid is ineffective: Japan loses a step each from CV Shokaku and BB Nagato while only causing 1 air step loss on the US.
The Allies then fight the War in Europe to bring the WiE level to 0 and then both sides store future offensives (the first of the game for Japan).
Next, Japan takes Rangoon with Operation KA. The Allies counter attack using Victor Plans. Japan reinforces with an (army) from Singapore and repulses the attack.
Progress of War is net met so PW drops to 2. New Guinea surrenders but the only hex that converts is Madang (Japan has conquered the island the hard way).
Turn 6
I drew Tokyo Rose, the Panama Canal raid card, another agreement card (end ISR/swap discard), 2 more EC offensives and had Col Tsugi in my FO. Thus going into this turn I had a good chance at closing out by either denying PoW or taking Burma. Doolittle still lurked but if I built up a big enough card advantage, maybe I could do both. At this point my position was still solid for a complete game. I was in position to close the Burma road and deny the US a bombing opportunity on turn 9 (which would prevent the atomic ending). My carrier force was beat up pretty bad (all CV units were flipped or eliminated at this point except CVL Junyo at Truk). However, the US ground and air forces were severely battered. As it turned out though, winning this turn became imperative as my position in the central Pacific collapsed.
The turn opens with Admiral Halsey taking command and successfully invading Sarong. This re-establishes supply to Kavieng and the isolation of the USN comes to an end. I respond with a 3OC to withdraw units from lower New Guinea/Solomons to reinforce Saipan, Vogelkop and Ulithi.
The US plays PT Boats which diminishes my planned card advantage at the end of the turn. I play Submarine Launched Air Attack on the Panama Canal. The Allies reorganize in Burma and Japan passes.
Op Square Peg unleashes three devastating attacks on Japanese carriers at Saipan, Palau and Truk. CVs Akagi, Soryu and CVL Junyo are eliminated, leaving only one Japanese CV step on the map (CV Shokaku at Miri).
I respond with Naval Battle of Guadalcanal to take the hex south of Mandalay (2107) and reinforce the now vacant Palau. SPac launches a 1OC vs. Rabaul which eliminates BB Yamato. Seems like something is up in the central Pacific but I don't have any more cards to spend to reinforce so I use Japanese Army/Navy: Central Agreement to fish out an ISR card so as to maintain a card advantage at the end of the turn.
Sure enough, Op Reno II is launched against Truk. SS HQ is displaced and in reaction some of the Japanese forces in the Solomons and lower New Guinea relocate to be in range of CF HQ. Next turn, the USN will have plenty of raiding bases and keeping the IJN hidden will be difficult.
The US is place under ISR and finally does not have an ISR-ender to respond with. SWPAC uses a 2OC army operation to take two more hexes in New Guinea bringing the total for PoW to 4 this turn. Japan continues the CBI push by taking Mandalay with Op RI.
The Allies sacrifice CV Enterprise in a raid on Medan in order to send the 1Aus corps to Dacca. A fifth PoW hex is taken in New Guinea for insurance purposes.
Tokyo Rose drops PW to 1. The last US card is Soviets Invade Manchuria which has to be played as the event. Japan is able to take Lashio and Mytkiyina on a 3OC and does not need to use Col Tsugi. Burma surrenders and the US enters peace negotiations.
Analysis
This was one of the more interesting playouts I've experienced. Japan did not draw an intercept or weather card all game (and only 1 counter-attack card). The US did not draw the big surprise cards but was able to do a lot of damage with the ANZAC surprise cards.
My strategy was to use the bonus ASPs on the Tokyo Express offensive to effectively take Port Moresby and Cairns on turn 2. By splitting the LOC between Australia and Pearl, the US would hopefully have to split SWPAC from CPAC and forcing them to operate independently was my chief objective. However, after not drawing any offensives on turn 3, I should have pulled back. By not doing so, I over-played my hand and in the end left too many holes on the interior of my defenses (I simply didn't the activations to cover as much ground as I was attempting to cover).
James did a good job exploiting these holes and slowing down Japan's progress (e.g., the Wake brigade invasion of Ulithi). However, he over-reached when grabbing Kavieng. One thing the US has to maintain is a clear LOC out of any island or base that is taken. Otherwise, Japan can isolate the forward base and if the USN is based there then the result can be disastrous. The US had enough bases but all the air attrition had taken its toll by turn 4 and there wasn't enough air units to maintain a clear ZOI path. I needed some luck to isolate Kavieng but even if my first attempt had failed, I likely would have succeeded later in the turn. However, the operations needed to put and keep Kavieng OOS added attrition to Japan's naval forces that you would like to avoid if playing for the long game. I considered attacking the USN at Kavieng when it was OOS but in the end I decided to use my offensives against the CBI and get Burma. This was a much safer course of action though the temptation to go for the CV PW point was very great in turn 5.
In terms of the PW calculus, this game turned out to be very stereotypical. Japan got the usual 4 (Philippines, Malaya, DEI and Burma). Each side got one PW card to cancel and Japan got Tojo, netting 2 PW from cards. So then it was up to progress of war. When the US fails 1 PoW, PW victories tend to be avoided; failing 3 usually results in a PW victory for Japan. Two failures is about "average" and puts the PW victory within range and dependent on Tojo and that is what happened in this game.